Airbus’ Global Services Forecast (GSF) for 2019-2038 offers a forward-looking view of the air transport services sector’s evolution – accounting for factors such as demographic and economic growth, tourism trends, oil prices, development of new and existing routes, and ultimately highlighting demand for aircraft covering the full spectrum of sizes from 100 seats to the very largest aircraft over 500 seats.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), which is the basis of the Global Services Forecast (GSF), estimates that by 2038, the world will need at least 37,400 new aircraft. The growth in the fleet will drive the services business, which will more than double over the next 20 years, from US$160 billion in 2019, to more than 330 billion a year by 2038, a cumulative US$4.9 trillion.
Aircraft-focused lifecycle services represent the largest segment of growth and include maintenance, technician training, e-solutions, system upgrades and material management. This market represents a cumulative value of $2.4 trillion over the 20-year period.
Flight operations services, such as pilot training and flight-planning solutions, will account for a $1.4 trillion cumulative spend over 20 years. Airbus also estimates there is a need for 550,000 new pilots in the next 20 years to cope with fleet growth.
The third component of the Global Services Forecast centres on the passenger experience which will account for an estimated $1.1 trillion cumulative value over the 20 year period. This encompasses the services needed to enhance the flight experience, including cabin upgrades, cabin crew training, in-flight-entertainment, connectivity and booking.
Over this 20 year period, new technologies, including an increase in the number of “connected” aircraft, will lead to a growth in the e-enabled services. Digitalisation is expected to bring new opportunities to deliver services that will benefit not just our customers, but also the passenger. Access and analysis to data from aircraft and their operations will be at the heart of these innovations.